More US patients than ever are being prescribed GLP-1 weight loss medications each week, and biopharma experts have increased their annual sales forecasts of the drugs to more than $150 billion by 2030.
Even still, competitors Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are struggling to meet demand.
Lilly and Novo currently hold the market share with their blockbuster GLP-1 medications. Both companies’ stocks have increased rapidly this year, with Lilly shares $LLY jumping 36%, and Novo’s $NVO 33%.
US prescriptions for these GLP-1 drugs have reached an all-time high of 1.39 million as of May 17, according to a Jefferies report using IQVIA data on Sunday.
For the week of May 17, around 165,000 patients were prescribed Novo’s weight loss drug Wegovy, and around 103,000 received prescriptions for Lilly’s Zepbound, according to the report. Overall, prescriptions for GLP-1s were up by 181% in February, compared to two years prior, according to an IQVIA report on May 7.
Number of GLP-1 prescriptions made in the US (Source: Jefferies, IQVIA)
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Biopharma experts are now forecasting that GLP-1 drugs will reach over $150 billion in revenue by the early 2030s. Visible Alpha is projecting combined revenue of $164 billion by 2032, whereas Baron Capital analysts are forecasting $150 billion, according to March reports.
This is up from previous projections: Last year, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan predicted GLP-1s would rake in $100 billion by 2030, according to reports in October and November 2023, respectively.
Novo and Lilly have both faced supply constraints and drug shortages, with each rapidly boosting their manufacturing capacity. Just last week, Lilly said it was pouring $5.3 billion into its Indiana facility to boost active pharmaceutical ingredient production of its diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss drug Zepbound, both of which have doses in shortage in the US.
Similarly, Novo is facing tight supply of its blockbuster drug Wegovy and aims to boost production through its proposed purchase of three Catalent facilities.
Lilly CFO Anat Ashkenazi touted plans to boost capacity in the company’s 2024 first-quarter earnings call in April, yet expects “demand will outpace supply” for the year.
Despite manufacturing constraints, both companies reported increased sales for their GLP-1s. Novo made twice as much in Wegovy sales for the first quarter of 2024, reaching 9.4 billion Danish kroner ($1.4 billion) compared to the same period last year. Lilly also reported an increase in revenue for its GLP-1 medicines: Mounjaro pulled in $1.8 billion and Zepbound $517 million for the first quarter of 2024.
“We continue to expand our global production, which has been running 24 hours a day, seven days a week. In 2024, we plan to invest DKK 45 billion in production compared to actual investments of DKK 25 billion last year,” a Novo spokesperson told Endpoints News.